This map shows different foreclosure rates across the state.  Note that the numbers show conditions and density of owner-occupied subprime mortgage loans only, which is why the ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) propensity is so high, and the loans per 1000 seem so low (although, to think that over 1 in 4 homes in florida are “non-prime” is a scary proposition).  Other stats that may require some explanation…

Median combined LTV- “LTV” is loan to value percentage; if you have a 10% down payment, for instance, the LTV is 90.  At the peak of the crisis, with everyone beleiving that housing prices would go up forever, some LTVs went over 100.  The median has settled back down, but I’m guessing the deviation is pretty high.

Share low FICO and high LTV- A high LTV is anything over 90, and a low FICO denotes someone with a poor credit risk.  This is the best measure of people who get loans they can’t afford with insufficient credit and income.  They are the riskiest of the risky.

Share ARMs resetting in 12 mos.- The danger number, this is when people with ARMs can encounter their massive balloon payments and higher rates.

Something that shouldn’t surprise readers (much less the writers) of this blog, note that the panhandle is decidedly duller red than the rest of Florida, at least in terms of Foreclosure rates, where Florida ranks #1 in the country (as of March 1, 2009) at 7.5/1000, more than doubling #2-California at 3.6/1000.  However, the most foreclosed county in the Panhandle, Santa Rosa, hovers just at the California mark (remember, these comparisons might be different if all loans, not just nonprime, were considered).

But, everything in the Panhandle isn’t good news.

Something Remains Amiss

On this map, where Green=improvement, yellow=same, and red=getting worse in the past six months in the foreclosure market, things don’t look too good for Florida.  In the Panhandle, only Bay, Calhoun, Taylor, and Gilchrist Counties have seen foreclosures go down in the past six months.  The numbers in general for the state don’t look too good either.  As foreclosures increase, it will drag down the construction starts, an important industry in the panhandle as carpetbaggers and scalawags try to escape the snow.

The New York Times reported a new dip in housing starts and permits granted, important leading factors of the health of the construction industry.

There is one bright spot, the “Share of ARMS resetting in 12 mos” has considerably decreased, which limits some of the upward pressure on foreclosure rates since fewer people are staring down balloon payments, etc.

Hopefully, some of the longer term structural changes, and people getting smarter about mortgages, means that when these ARM resets finally slow down after late summer, recovery won’t be far behind.