It turns out that my prediction (sadly) was correct. In this amazingly historic election, the panhandle has turned more red, not less, in response to the powerful campaigning of Barack Obama. Here are the highlights:
Senator Barack Obama is taking this country by storm. Every reliable predictive tool shows him well ahead nationally, and polls are showing him making substantial gains even in “red states” like Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. In some cases, states like Virginia are now polling with an Obama lead of 7%, when in 2004 that gave Bush an 8% lead (considerably more than his national vote-share advantage of ~2%). But these facts are all over the news. Here’s a real question for you: Will my reliably conservative Okaloosa County (“the OC”) turn blue?
My best guess is: absolutely not. Now, I’m not one who likes to profess opinions without relevant data. Without access to polls or other relevant information, I know how prone the human mind is to simplification. Demographic shifts since my time in “the OC” may change the composition of the electorate (although it would be hard to see the kind of demographic shift occurring in Okaloosa that would work in favor of Democrats). Still, only based on my experience with the region, I would guess that not only will Obama not take Okaloosa County; he will not even change the vote share there by more than 5% from Bush’s 3-to-1 margin of victory in 2000. *(With the assumption that Bob Barr’s votes get to count toward McCain –a lame concession in a sense, but still nonetheless indicative of the OC’s “redness”)
Now, this may seem like a crazy prediction right? You could easily say that, even if Okaloosa doesn’t like Obama, its staunchly-conservative views aren’t likely to align with McCain. Also, we’ve seen places like Montana become a toss-up; and Montana voted 75% for Bush in 2000. Okaloosa County is strongly influenced by the military; maybe Colin Powell’s powerful endorsement will change some minds? Also, we’ve heard stories about how the terrible economy is making even blatantly racist individuals consider Obama. So why am I so sure that the OC will go so red? Let’s talk about some recent history.
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